citygirl
Posts: 83
Joined: Wed Feb 15, 2017 12:01 am

Will electric cars take over as quickly as cars displaced horses from 1900 to 1925?

Sat Jul 29, 2017 10:09 pm

Green Car Reports is saying that 2040 seems to be the magical number when all things become electric
A working paper from the International Monetary Fund, titled “Riding the Energy Transition: Oil Beyond 2040," suggests that under an optimistic scenario, plug-in electric vehicles could reach as much as 90 percent of production by 2040.
The summary pretty much says it all:
The return of the electric car and its adoption, like that of the motor vehicle in place of horses in early 20th century, could cut oil consumption substantially in the coming decades.
READ THIS: Norway's Goal: All New Cars Will Be Emission-Free By 2025 To Cut Carbon (Nov 2015)
Our analysis suggests that oil as the main fuel for transportation could have a much shorter life span left than commonly assumed. In the fast adoption scenario, oil prices could converge to the level of coal prices, about $15 per barrel in 2015 prices by the early 2040s.
In this possible future, oil could become the new coal.
I wonder how many people way back when said there would never be that many cars on the roads in 25 years...technology can change quickly

Tcdn
Posts: 211
Joined: Sat Jul 09, 2016 1:52 pm

Re: Will electric cars take over as quickly as cars displaced horses from 1900 to 1925?

Mon Jul 31, 2017 8:42 pm

This is very interesting. If we look at how technology changed from the 1800's to the 1930's it must have been mind blowing! Back then they were starting from scratch and that may or may not have been a good thing. A huge obstacle we face is how to reuse and resource out all the displaced individuals, infrastructure and taxes the gas powered engine industry has. It will be a big undertaking and a wonderful experience to watch

voltage
Posts: 138
Joined: Tue Aug 09, 2016 8:09 pm

Re: Will electric cars take over as quickly as cars displaced horses from 1900 to 1925?

Wed Aug 02, 2017 11:32 pm

I do like the thought that goes into this question. Also we have another time where technology just took off and what was really expensive no longer is - compact discs, cellular phones etc. I'm no expert but I do think they will follow the same pattern. Science is like that..big bang :D

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